Don’t be too certain

“Through seeking we may learn and know things better. But as for certain truth, no man hath known it, for all is but a
woven web of guesses.”

Xenophanes, 6th century BCE

“I am always certain about things that are a matter of opinion.”

Charlie (‘Peanuts’) Brown, 20th century CE

“Our many errors show that the practice of causal inference . . . remains an art. Although to assist us, we have acquired analytic techniques, statistical methods and conventions, and logical criteria, ultimately the conclusions we reach are a matter of judgement.”

Susser M. Causal thinking in the health sciences.
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1983.